Sixteen 2023

AL162023 Advisory Number -1,

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I’m just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

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  • as of 2023-09-22T18:01:23+00:00
  • 100px per degree
  • GWAF 0.9
  • No Friction
  • default radius of maximum wind is 15kts

Data Files

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File List:

  • sixteen2023_100x100.csv
  • sixteen2023_100x100.png
  • sixteen2023_100x100.wld
  • sixteen2023_100x100_2023-09-22T180100+0000.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Neuse and Bay Rivers…3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers…3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach…2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA…2-4 ft Albemarle Sound…2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC…1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ…1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay…1-3 ft Delaware Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart