Four 2024

AL042024 Advisory Number 6,

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I’m just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

gis_img

  • as of 2024-08-03T21:02:22+00:00
  • 100px per degree
  • GWAF 0.9
  • No Friction
  • default radius of maximum wind is 15kts

Data Files

Download Zip

File List:

  • four2024_100x100.csv
  • four2024_100x100.png
  • four2024_100x100.wld
  • four2024_100x100_2024-08-03T210200+0000.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 83.2 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a northward turn on Sunday and a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday.

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and ships in the Straits of Florida indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected as Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL …4-7 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL…3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL…2-4 ft Tampa Bay…2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$ Forecaster Beven